Synergistic Reduction of Carbon and Pollutants in China’s Coal Chemical Industry Using Renewable H2 and O2

The coal chemical industry is a major emitter of carbon and pollutants in China, yet the synergistic potential of decarbonization options remains unclear. This study integrates life-cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) to evaluate the synergistic reduction potential of substituting conventional coal-based H2/O2 with renewable-powered electrolytic H2/O2 across eight scenarios for 2030 and 2050, explicitly accounting for green H2 supply constraints. We find that full life-cycle emissions reached 1.29 Gt CO2eq and 20.43 Mt of pollutants in 2023 (≈10% of national GHG emissions), projected to rise to 2.49 Gt and 41.46 Mt by 2050. While the theoretical maximum carbon reduction potential reaches 95%, a severe green H2 supply gap limits near-term feasibility: achievable reductions are only 12% (carbon) and 1% (pollutants) by 2030, rising to 42% and 11% by 2050, with abatement costs of –380 billion to 3.6 trillion CNY. The wind- and solar-powered pathways are most cost-effective (marginal abatement costs as low as 195 CNY/t CO2eq). We recommend prioritizing deployment in renewable-rich regions and aligning electrolysis scale-up with grid decarbonization to enable a pragmatic transition toward a green H2-integrated coal chemical industry.