Bridging the Gap Between Numbers and Experience: Identifying Community Risk Thresholds in Extreme Weather Communication

In weather risk communication, there is a disconnect between numerical models and community members’ experiences. To help resolve this issue, the authors propose a topological method to identify community risk thresholds, arguing that they offer a middle ground that enables more robust communication about risk. The authors surveyed 1,429 participants, including decision-makers and public audience members, who responded to probabilistic visualizations from five National Weather Service offices. The results reveal that audiences engage in sophisticated risk assessment by drawing on multiple dimensions that can be communicated as community risk thresholds. Embedding these thresholds in the forecast can better link numerical and experiential risk.