Conflict exposure and children’s educational well-being in pastoralist communities: An ecological indicator approach from Baringo, Kenya

Children living in pastoral conflict settings face persistent disruptions to schooling, yet the mechanisms through which such violence undermines children’s educational well-being remain under-examined. This study investigates the relationship between ecological exposure to cattle rustling and children’s educational disruption in Baringo North Sub-County, Kenya, and assesses whether structural social support conditions this relationship. Guided by ecological systems theory, the study draws on a cross-sectional survey of 424 adult residents reporting on children’s educational well-being. Three composite indices were constructed: the cattle rustling ecological exposure index (CREEI), the cattle rustling educational disruption index (CREDI), and the structural social support index (SSSI). Hierarchical multiple regression tested direct and moderating effects. Results show a strong positive association between ecological exposure to cattle rustling and cumulative educational disruption (r = .859, p < .001) with exposure explaining substantial variation in children’s education outcomes (ΔR² = .698, p < .001). Structural social support showed marginal independent association (p = .054) and did not moderate the exposure-disruption relationship. The findings suggest that in contexts of chronic communal violence, such as cattle rustling, institutional plurality alone is insufficient to buffer educational disruption. Addressing children’s educational vulnerability in pastoral conflict settings, there is a need for sustained, coordinated and culturally legitimate interventions.