Sahelexit: Military regime autonomy and the withdrawal of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS

The withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) marks a significant rupture in West African regional integration. Existing explanations tend to emphasise military governments’ resistance to democratic conditionality, anti-Western sentiment, and the search for alternative external partnerships. This paper argues that these factors are best understood through the broader logic of regime survival and political autonomy. Military regimes may accept the long-term economic and security costs of regional disengagement when continued membership imposes immediate political constraints on their ability to consolidate power and determine the timing and character of political transitions. Thus, ECOWAS pressure serves as the principal institutional constraint, while anti-Western narratives provide political legitimation and alternative partnerships reduce the strategic costs of withdrawal. Drawing on ECOWAS documents, academic and policy literature, public statements, and Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) conflict data, the paper develops a qualitative account of the processes linking military rule, institutional pressure, and regional exit. It argues that Sahelexit seeks to replace a form of regionalism perceived as constraining regime autonomy with alternative forms of regional cooperation. The paper contributes to debates on regionalism by showing how military governments’ survival incentives can generate pressure for regional fragmentation even when the long-term benefits of integration remain substantial.