Sahelexit and the limits of liberal institutionalism: Elite survival and competing regional orders in West Africa

In January 2025, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger formally exited the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), having established the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in 2023. This article argues that ‘Sahelexit’ exposes the limits of liberal institutionalist explanations of regional organisations under conditions of regime insecurity, especially with regard to how ruling elites respond to existential threats. Drawing on process tracing and qualitative analysis of ECOWAS and AES official documents, media reports and secondary sources, the article advances an elite survival/regime security framework to explain both ECOWAS’s evolution and the emergence of the AES. It argues that ECOWAS’s shift towards democratic conditionality reflected the survival interests of elected elites seeking protection against unconstitutional power seizures. Conversely, Sahelexit represents a strategic response by military regimes to escape these constraints. Rather than signalling institutional failure, the AES reflects a reconfiguration of regional order shaped by competing elite survival strategies.