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Randomized analysis uncovers temperature index trends in Northern Carpathians, indicating urgent climate adaptation needs.
While global climate change is fundamentally reshaping thermal regimes, capturing these shifts in topographically diverse regions remains a significant hurdle for standard gridded datasets. This study provides a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of 16 extreme temperature indices across Northern Carpathian from 1980 to 2024 using the E-OBS dataset. The QDM framework proved highly effective in neutralizing elevation-induced temperature biases, which reached up to 5.1 °C in raw E-OBS data. Beyond simple bias removal, the correction significantly improved the daily accuracy of the dataset, with RMSE values at high-altitude stations, such as the Chopok summit (1995 m), decreasing from 5.1 °C to 2.3 °C. Both Warm Days (TX90p) and Summer Days (SU) show near-perfect Field Coherence (Cf = 100% and 98%, respectively). A prominent feature of this temporal national average trend is its inherent asymmetry; the Annual Minimum (TNn) is climbing nearly twice as fast (+1.1 °C/decade) as the Annual Maximum (TXx) (+0.6 °C/decade), though the warming of these coldest nights is more localized (74.5% coherence). We also identified a clear signal of Elevation-Dependent Warming (EDW), with absolute maximums surging most aggressively in the Northern Carpathians at +1.6 °C/decade. Conversely, cold-tail indices like Ice Days are in a concurrent nationwide retreat (Cf = 97%), a shift that significantly reduces the physical window for winter tourism and alters the climatic envelope for fragile mountain ecosystems. Ultimately, these results position Slovakia as a high-sensitivity climate region where observed trends often outpace broader Central European averages, highlighting the urgent need for localized, nature-based adaptation strategies.
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Gamal et al. (2026) studied this question.
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