Rethinking Fiscal Decentralization in Relation to Regional Informality: Evidence from a European Transition Country

This study investigates how a territorially uneven distribution of informal economic activity affects subnational fiscal capacity and potentially distorts fiscal equalization systems. Using a Multiple Indicators, Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model, we estimate the size of the informal economy across the eight statistical regions of North Macedonia over the 2008–2023 period. The estimated shares of regional informality are subsequently linked to indicators of fiscal dependence and local revenue performance. The findings suggest that regions characterized by larger informal economies tend to exhibit greater dependence on intergovernmental transfers and weaker effective fiscal autonomy. The analysis further indicates that intergovernmental transfer systems relying primarily on regional gross domestic product and realized tax collections may systematically underestimate the true economic potential of highly informal jurisdictions. The paper contributes to the literature by conceptualizing informality not merely as an informal economic activity, but as a structural distortion affecting the measurement of fiscal capacity and the functioning of decentralized public finance systems.