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July 9, 2026Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Divergent population trajectories despite similar response to temperature in a widespread aerial insectivore

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Authors

CTConor C. TaffAmerican Museum of Natural HistoryJSJ. Ryan ShipleySwiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and TechnologyDADaniel R. ArdiaFranklin & Marshall College

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Overview

Randomized trial shows that despite similar temperature sensitivity, populations vary in response timing and impacts, highlighting vulnerabilities to climate change.

Key Points

  • This research aims to understand why some populations of tree swallows adapt to climate change while others do not, focusing on temperature sensitivity and response timing.
  • Analyzed 1,555 population-years from 123 populations of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor)
  • Assessed breeding timing relative to local temperature changes
  • Compared responses between northern and southern populations to determine effects of climate change
  • All populations show similar sensitivity, advancing breeding by about one day per degree of warming
  • Northern populations have advanced laying dates the most but have higher selection pressure for earlier breeding
  • Northern populations have shown greater declines in breeding abundance compared to southern populations

Cite This Study

Taff et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a4f3c8a2b81a944af575d21https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2601817123
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