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June 30, 2026Central Asian Journal of Medical Hypotheses and EthicsOpen Access

Ten-Year Dynamics of Chronic Heart Failure and Concomitant Pathologies: A Retrospective Observational Study

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Why the study?

In Almaty, the burden of chronic heart failure is aggravated by pronounced polymorbidity, motivating a comprehensive analysis of the 10-year dynamics of primary incidence and comorbid background.

Population

Outpatient population of Almaty with primary incidence of CHF and concomitant pathologies

Design

Retrospective observational study

Key result

Over a 10-year period in Almaty, the incidence of chronic heart failure nearly doubled from 37.7 to 72.3 per 100,000 population, accompanied by a 4.2-fold increase in concomitant renal failure.

Authors

DKDana KuatДМД.Н. МаханбеткуловаSSSultan Seidumanov

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Overview

Supports vigilance for rising cardiorenal burden in Central Asia; leaves open causal drivers and prevention strategies.

Study Design

Type

Observational (n=15,340)

Structured PICO

P
Population
15,340 adults with newly diagnosed chronic heart failure in Almaty, Kazakhstan, evaluated retrospectively over a 10-year period (2015-2024) to assess incidence and comorbidity trends.
O
Outcome
Dynamics of the primary incidence of chronic heart failure and concomitant somatic pathologies (arterial hypertension, angina pectoris, myocardial infarction, cardiac arrhythmias, renal failure) per 100,000 population over a 10-year period.

Main Result

Absolute Event Rate: 72.3% vs 37.7%

Over a 10-year period in Almaty, the incidence of chronic heart failure doubled with a shift toward male predominance, alongside a severe escalation in cardiorenal comorbidities, underscoring the need for enhanced primary care screening.

Limitations

  • Retrospective design based on aggregated statistical reports, precluding assessment of individual clinical records like LVEF or medications.
  • Dependence on the accuracy of ICD-10 coding by primary healthcare physicians, which could lead to under- or overdiagnosis.
  • Potential artificial fluctuations in incidence rates due to limited access to medical care during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns.
  • Regional specifics of Almaty may not fully reflect the epidemiological situation in rural areas or other regions of Kazakhstan.
  • Retrospective nature based on aggregated statistical reports, precluding assessment of individual clinical records (e.g., LVEF, NT-proBNP, medications)
  • Dependence on the accuracy and quality of ICD-10 coding by primary care physicians, risking underdiagnosis or overdiagnosis
  • Potential confounding by limited access to medical care during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns
  • Regional specifics of a large Central Asian megacity may not reflect rural areas or other regions of Kazakhstan

Cite This Study

Kuat et al. (2026) conducted an observational in Chronic heart failure and concomitant pathologies (n=15,340). Time period (2015-2024) vs. Baseline year (2015) was evaluated on Incidence of chronic heart failure per 100,000 population. Over a 10-year period in Almaty, the incidence of chronic heart failure nearly doubled from 37.7 to 72.3 per 100,000 population, accompanied by a 4.2-fold increase in concomitant renal failure.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a504b24d12740e5d62fa738https://doi.org/10.47316/cajmhe.2026.7.2.06
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