A DEB-based physiological model to predict individual performance of Mytilus galloprovincialis in the Black Sea

Determining habitat quality and distribution of benthic species is a crucial aim for marine ecologists as many benthic species play an important role in marine ecosystems and aquaculture. The habitat suitability of benthic ecosystem engineers, such as the Mediterranean mussel ( Mytilus galloprovincialis ), is especially important because their proliferation drives much of the benthic ecosystem functioning. We have developed an individual growth model for M. galloprovincialis in the Black Sea. Our model is based on Dynamic Energy Budget theory and captures the energetic effects of the extreme environmental conditions that Black Sea benthic organisms experience. Oxygen, suspended matter loads, and temperature are implemented in the model and assumed to impact growth. The resulting M. galloprovincialis growth model was parametrized and validated with growth trajectory data originating from the Black Sea, both in terms of shell length and wet weight biomass, and in multiple locations in the region. We performed a spatial analysis of physiological performance in the Black Sea region based on individual growth and reproduction potential. The results show high potential growth of M. galloprovincialis on the Northwestern shelf of the Black Sea as well as along the Northern Turkey coast. High reproduction is predicted at shallow high energy environments along the Northwestern shelf coast. This basin-wide analysis shows the applicability of the model across a broad spatial and temporal range and shows the potential of coupling DEB dynamics and ecosystem models.