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This work aims to evaluate the influence of the Tropical Atlantic on ENSO predictability over the 20th century.

July 10, 2026Scientific ReportsOpen Access

Impact of tropical Atlantic on ENSO predictability in SEAS5-20C

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This work aims to evaluate the influence of the Tropical Atlantic on ENSO predictability over the 20th century.
Analyzed the Atlantic-Pacific relationship using the ECMWF SEAS5-20C reforecast framework.
Investigated multidecadal variability and changes in predictive skill for ENSO among tropical regions during the century.
Assessed predictability improvements even up to 12 months after initialization.
Improved ENSO predictability linked to interactions between tropical basins.
Confirmatory evidence of Atlantic influence on Pacific predictability over different decades.
Notable enhancement of ENSO skill was observed in reforecasts, particularly beyond 12-month lead-time.

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Randomized trial analyzes the Atlantic-Pacific connection and its effect on ENSO predictability, indicating significant findings.

Robles-Fernández et al. (2026) studied this question.

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