China’s urban future: Predictive analysis of real estate development and environmental load under the shared socioeconomic pathways

In China, the real estate sector is an important driver of economic growth but also a major source of environmental pressure through construction-material demand and related upstream production. In the context of climate-change mitigation and sustainable development, understanding the future environmental consequences of real estate expansion is increasingly important. This study projects future changes in China’s real-estate-related completed floor area, building-material demand, and associated PM 2.5 and CO 2 emissions under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. A forecasting framework was developed by linking socioeconomic and demographic drivers with completed floor area, material consumption, and embodied emissions. The results show that by 2060, China’s completed real estate area will increase by 70–160% relative to 2020 across the SSP scenarios. Within the present empirical projection framework, demand for cement, steel, flat glass, and aluminum generally remains above the 2020 level, with cement and steel showing the largest absolute increases, while brick demand declines after 2030. Meanwhile, PM 2.5 and CO 2 emissions are projected to rise by 2.2–4.2 times and 1.6–2.6 times, respectively, compared with 2020. The projections reveal a clear divergence between PM 2.5 and CO 2 pathways: PM 2.5 growth slows after 2030, whereas CO 2 emissions continue to rise across all scenarios, with no peak in real-estate-related embodied CO 2 by 2060 within the present modeling framework. The study provides a quantitative basis for integrating real estate planning with material-efficiency improvement, supply-chain decarbonization, air-pollution control, and long-term carbon-neutrality planning.