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July 10, 2026Comparative Political StudiesOpen Access

Ideas or Strategy? The Impact of Populist Incumbents on Liberal Democracy

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Authors

KHKirk A. HawkinsSRSaskia P. RuthGMGordon R. Mitchell

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Overview

Comparative analysis uncovers ideational approach as more effective than political-strategic in predicting democracy's decline.

Key Points

  • This research evaluates how populist incumbents affect democratic institutions by comparing two theoretical frameworks.
  • Contrasting ideational and political-strategic approaches to populism.
  • Employing both frequentist and Bayesian statistical methods for empirical comparison.
  • Deriving specific measures from each theoretical approach.
  • Ideational approach measures outperform political-strategic measures in predicting democratic decline (specific metrics not provided).
  • Statistical tests reveal significant differences in effectiveness between the two approaches.

Cite This Study

Hawkins et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a508bde6eeac72a437a053ehttps://doi.org/10.1177/00104140261455871
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