Risk convergence in mining: Climate change as a multiplier of operational, geotechnical, and reliability threats

The intensification of climate extremes and variability beyond historical patterns reveals a structural gap in mining: risks traditionally managed in silos, such as safety/process, geotechnics, maintenance/reliability, and climate-related and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risks, are increasingly interacting in non-linear ways, amplifying both probabilities and consequences and generating cascading effects on production, asset integrity, and safety. This article argues that the central challenge is no longer merely the identification of individual risks, but rather the understanding and management of the convergence among them, with climate acting as a physical trigger that synchronizes threats and shifts core design and operational assumptions. Methodologically, the study develops a critical synthesis based on 32 studies and complementary technical literature, initially structured around four risk domains and subsequently rearticulated into convergence mechanisms (climate-geotechnics; climate-logistics/productivity; climate-maintenance/reliability; and systemic portfolio risk). The findings indicate that extreme rainfall, droughts, and anomalous temperatures affect operational processes, critical infrastructure, and equipment availability, while simultaneously exposing persistent gaps in information integration, technical governance, and the economic translation of physical risk into decision-relevant metrics. It is concluded that advancing operational resilience requires integrated, decision-oriented models capable of translating physical variables (e.g., precipitation, groundwater level, availability, and payload) into actionable indicators and value-at-risk metrics, thereby reducing organizational vulnerability to multi-point climate shocks.