Cereal yields in fragile states: the roles of economic growth, inflation, climate variability, and governance

In fragile states, climatic volatility, institutional fragility, and economic uncertainty make sustainable cereal yields a major development challenge. This study examines the association between climate variability, macroeconomic conditions, institutional quality, and cereal yields in 15 fragile states from 2002 to 2022. Using CIPS and CADF second-generation unit root tests, Kao cointegration, the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator, and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) robustness analysis, the study finds evidence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables. The results show that economic growth, rainfall, and government effectiveness are positively associated with cereal yields, while inflation, temperature, political instability, and population growth are negatively associated with yield performance. These findings highlight the dependence of cereal production in fragile states on rain-fed agriculture, macroeconomic stability, and effective governance. The study recommends investments in climate-smart agriculture, irrigation and water management, input-cost stabilization, and stronger public agricultural services to improve cereal productivity and food security in fragile and conflict-affected countries.