CT-TreeFlow: Probabilistic Groundwater-Potential Mapping Using Remote Sensing-Derived Environmental Predictors in Karst Aquifers

Groundwater-potential assessment in karst aquifers is complicated by pronounced spatial heterogeneity driven by structural permeability, lithological variability, recharge redistribution, and unresolved subsurface conduit connectivity. Although machine-learning approaches have improved regional groundwater mapping, most existing models provide only deterministic predictions and offer limited information on predictive uncertainty and hydrogeological reliability. To address this limitation, we propose CT-TreeFlow. This probabilistic groundwater assessment framework goes beyond conventional machine-learning models by explicitly learning the full conditional probability distribution of groundwater favourability rather than a single deterministic estimate. The framework integrates sparse probabilistic environmental routing, conditional density estimation, hydrogeologically constrained pseudo-absence generation, geographically structured spatial validation, and explainability-driven interpretation within a unified modelling architecture, enabling simultaneous groundwater prediction, uncertainty quantification, and hydrogeological interpretation. The framework was applied to the Zagros karst system in Khuzestan Province, Iran, using remote-sensing-derived environmental predictors, Copernicus DEM-based morphometric variables, geological–structural datasets, and hydroclimatic indicators. Performance was evaluated against LightGBM and XGBoost using GroupKFold spatial cross-validation. CT-TreeFlow achieved a mean RMSE of 2.737 and a mean R2 of 0.852, while also providing spatially explicit uncertainty estimates and probabilistic prediction intervals. Explainability analyses identified fracture density, lithology, drainage organisation, and terrain-controlled recharge conditions as the dominant controls on groundwater favourability. Predicted high-favourability zones showed strong spatial correspondence with major carbonate formations and independent spring–cave inventories, supporting the hydrogeological plausibility of the mapped patterns. These results demonstrate that probabilistic modelling can provide more reliable and physically interpretable groundwater assessments than deterministic approaches in structurally complex karst environments. CT-TreeFlow offers a transferable framework for uncertainty-aware groundwater exploration and regional hydrogeological decision support in heterogeneous aquifer systems.