Climate change, conflict, and rural employment dynamics in Somalia

Agriculture remains central to rural livelihoods in Somalia, yet the sector is increasingly exposed to climate variability, persistent conflict, and low productivity. This study examines how rainfall, temperature, humidity, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), conflict, and GDP per capita are associated with male and female rural agricultural employment during 1991–2023. Using national annual time-series data, the study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to estimate short- and long-run relationships, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) to validate long-run estimates, and Bai–Perron tests to identify structural shifts. Results show that temperature and conflict are negatively associated with agricultural employment, with stronger adverse effects for women, while rainfall and humidity are positively associated with male participation. GDP per capita exhibits a weak and uneven relationship with gendered employment, suggesting that economic growth alone does not translate into inclusive rural labor outcomes. Climate variability and insecurity therefore deepen gendered vulnerabilities in Somalia’s rural labor market. Policy should prioritize gender-responsive climate adaptation, water and soil-moisture management, heat-risk mitigation, conflict-sensitive rural infrastructure, and livelihood diversification. Policy efforts should focus not only on sustaining agricultural employment, but also on improving productivity, resilience, and access to higher-quality rural livelihood opportunities.