The impact of China’s non-pharmaceutical interventions on economic growth during COVID-19: a provincial-level panel analysis

This study examines the economic impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented in China during the COVID-19 pandemic, utilizing a provincial-level panel dataset from 2020Q1 to 2022Q4. We employ a pooled OLS model with panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) to address cross-sectional dependence, serial correlation, and heteroskedasticity, while a fixed-effects instrumental variable (FE-IV) model is used to resolve endogeneity from reverse causality. The analysis reveals that NPIs significantly reduced quarterly GDP growth, with coefficients ranging from -0.078 to 0.154 across models. Regional heterogeneity shows stronger negative effects in eastern (-0.092) provinces compared to western and central provinces. Temporal analysis further identifies an empirically observed three-stage targeted response: significant negative impacts in 2020 (-0.180), but an insignificant effect in 2021 and 2022, reflecting policy adjustments and economic adaptation. The findings underscore the trade-offs between public health measures and economic performance, with an estimated 0.096 percentage point economic loss due to NPIs, consistent with global studies.