E-Commerce in Azerbaijan: Analysis of the Current State of the Market, Digital Prerequisites and Directions of Development

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of the e-commerce market in Azerbaijan and identifies the directions of its further development. Based on official data of the State Statistical Committee, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan, as well as materials of the World Bank, the OECD and the EU4Digital programme, the dynamics of electronic retail trade turnover for 2013–2024 are examined, digital payment and digital banking indicators are analysed, and the central contradiction of the national market is revealed: the rapid growth of the population's digital payment behaviour is combined with a low share of officially recorded electronic retail trade in total retail trade turnover. To quantify market maturity, the author applies the penetration ratio of electronic retail trade (Kₑ = 0.25%), proposes an integral Digital Prerequisites Index for e-commerce development (DPI = 0.823) and calculates the conversion ratio of digital readiness into electronic retail trade (CEC = 0.003). Comparison of the obtained values with international benchmarks (Kazakhstan, the USA, the United Kingdom) demonstrates that the constraint on development is not the technological base, but institutional, logistical and behavioural factors — primarily the deficit of consumer trust, confirmed by a model survey of 200 respondents (Trust Barriers Index TBI = 29.25%). By means of a PESTLE analysis, the political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental factors of the market macro-environment are systematised, and practical recommendations are formulated concerning the improvement of statistical observation, the development of consumer protection and online dispute resolution mechanisms, the enhancement of broadband infrastructure quality, the digitalisation of small and medium-sized enterprises and the formation of sustainable e-commerce logistics.