Analysis of Coastal High-Tide Flooding Events in China: A Case Study of the Event in November 2024

Under the background of global warming, high-tide floods pose growing threats to China’s coastal ecosystems, infrastructure and freshwater supplies. Although the occurrence of high-tide flooding events is widely recognized as being related to relative sea-level rise, tides, and residuals, the analysis and attribution of individual events remain relatively scarce. Based on tide-gauge data and numerical simulations, this study conducted a quantitative analysis of the high-tide flooding events along China’s southern coast around 19 November 2024 and provides mitigation recommendations. Results indicate that coastal sea levels south of the Yangtze River Estuary in November 2024 hit the third-highest November value on record. Sea levels south of the Taiwan Strait were 26 cm above those of normal years, with the highest monthly level since that recorded in 1980. Around 19 November, the coastal area levels coincided with the astronomical spring tide period, with the astronomical high water levels in Shanwei (Guangdong), Dongfang (Hainan), and Beihai (Guangxi) reaching 116 cm, 186 cm, and 292 cm above local mean sea level, respectively. Additionally, influenced by the outer circulation of the tropical cyclone Man-Yi and a cold-air process, an extensive coastal surge occurred, with 30~80 cm surges persisting for nearly 30 h. The combined effects of high sea levels, spring tides, and abnormal surges triggered extreme sea levels that broke historical records, with multiple stations reaching once-in-20-year levels. The contributions of astronomical tides to the extreme sea levels in Shanwei, Dongfang and Beihai were 49.5%, 69.3%, and 77.8%, respectively, while the contributions of surges were 23.6%, 6.4%, and 4.6%. This high-tide flooding event affected multiple coastal areas in Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan. Developing a comprehensive adaptation strategy encompassing emergency observation and early warning, risk assessment and zoning, coastal protection, coastal adaptive planning, and freshwater resources management is crucial for effectively addressing the risks of high-tide flooding events.