Climate Warming May Increase the Transboundary Expansion Risk of Calliptamus italicus Between Xinjiang, China and Kazakhstan

The Italian locust (Calliptamus italicus) is a major agricultural pest causing significant damage to crops and grasslands in arid and semi-arid regions. To investigate its response to climate change, we applied ensemble species distribution modeling combined with niche analysis to predict its current and future potential distributions, and assess climatic niche dynamics and potential transboundary spread risks. We found that key environmental drivers included altitude, temperature variables (bio10, bio9), precipitation variables (bio18, bio17), and human footprint. Suitable habitat of Calliptamus italicus currently accounts for approximately 9.65% of the study area; under various future climate scenarios, this proportion is projected to rise to between 10.12% and 11.93%. Niche dynamics analysis revealed strong climatic niche conservatism and consistently high niche overlap across scenarios, suggesting that future range expansion is more likely to occur through tracking climatically analogous habitats rather than niche shifts. These findings provide spatially explicit support for risk zoning, monitoring prioritization, and the development of early-warning and adaptive management strategies, particularly within a China–Kazakhstan transboundary monitoring and biosecurity framework.