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July 12, 2026Political AnalysisOpen Access

Monotone Ecological Inference

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Authors

HEHadi ElzaynJGJacob GoldinCGCameron Guage

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Overview

Randomized trial studies vaccination differences in Republicans and Democrats, suggesting the impact of group compositions.

Key Points

  • This research aims to identify individual-level associations using only aggregate data while addressing biases in existing methods.
  • Developed a partial identification method called monotone ecological inference (EI).
  • Exploited conditional associations between outcome differences within neighborhoods and groups.
  • Illustrated findings using county-level data on COVID-19 vaccination rates among political parties.
  • Identified sharp bounds on individual-level associations based on neighborhood and group outcomes.
  • Demonstrated significant differences in COVID-19 vaccination rates between Republicans and Democrats across neighborhoods.

Cite This Study

Elzayn et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a532e014f7abc118adec8efhttps://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2026.10048
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