Wolf recolonisation does not predict public acceptance

Current wolf recolonisation is fuelling polarised debates over nature restoration versus the preservation of rural traditions. Understanding how public acceptance evolves as wolves return and how it coincides with suitable wolf habitat is key to fostering coexistence. We analysed nationwide surveys from early (2015) and advanced (2023) stages of wolf recolonisation in Switzerland. First, we modelled the spatial distribution of public acceptance of wolves, measured on a 5-point Likert scale from support to opposition, to determine how acceptance related to respondents' local environments, including exposure to wolves and livestock depredation, as well as geographical, human demographic, and socioeconomic factors. Second, we mapped changes in acceptance between the two survey years and examined how they related to changes in exposure to wolves and livestock depredation. Third, we spatially compared acceptance with ecological habitat suitability to locate areas of potential socioecological conflict. Despite wolf range expansion and population growth, nationwide acceptance of wolves in Switzerland remained stable between 2015 and 2023. We found consistently lower acceptance in mountain regions than in lowlands, influenced more by socio-demographic factors than by wolf recolonisation. Localised shifts in acceptance appeared in clusters across the landscape, linked more to respondents' spatial proximity than to exposure to wolves or depredation events. Our findings highlight the importance of a nuanced approach to wildlife management that recognises areas of potential socioecological conflict as priorities for conservation, and of promoting societal discourse on community beliefs and values in landscapes of contested wolf presence.