In 2024, the Chinese government mandated that retrofitted coal-fired power units should be capable of co-firing with over 10% green ammonia, providing a strategic fulcrum for the deep decarbonization of wind-solar power bases. Focusing on large wind and solar energy bases in Northwest China, this study developed a system dynamics model covering the entire industrial chain, including wind and solar power generation, green ammonia production, coal-fired power plant ammonia co-firing, and carbon trading. The model simulated the economic and environmental benefits of green ammonia co-firing in coal-fired power plants (GAC-CFPP) under different co-firing ratios. Furthermore, it quantitatively evaluated the impacts of enhancing ammonia production capacity using surplus green electricity, improving electrolyzer efficiency and learning rates, and optimizing ammonia storage and transportation on these benefits. The key findings were as follows: (1) GAC-CFPP significantly reduced coal consumption, with the cost per kilowatt-hour following a “first rise, then fall” trend, reaching 0.65, 0.61, and 0.55 CNY/kWh in 2060. Meanwhile, the power generation costs under low, medium, and high co-firing ratios scenarios decreased by 7.48%, 14.83%, and 22.21% compared to pure coal combustion. (2) GAC-CFPP significantly reduced SO 2 and CO 2 emissions. As the proportion of green ammonia fuel increases, the carbon emission intensity per kilowatt-hour of the units showed a stepwise decline. By 2050, carbon emissions per kilowatt-hour under low, medium, and high co-firing ratios scenarios were projected to decrease by 25%, 51.32%, and 85.53% compared with the 2024 emission level. (3) After GAC-CFPP, profits generally underwent a transformation process characterized by a significant initial decline followed by a gradual recovery until turning a profit. Concurrently, the carbon revenues generated from GAC-CFPP grew steadily. By 2050, carbon revenues were expected to contribute 21.61%, 34.73%, and 44.08% to the total revenue from CFPP under the respective scenarios. (4) Enhanced ammonia production using surplus green electricity, improved electrolyzer efficiency, and optimized ammonia storage and transportation technologies effectively reduced the unit cost of green ammonia, thereby expanding the profit margin for GAC-CFPP. Compared to optimizing ammonia storage and transportation, promoting improvements in electrolysis efficiency and learning rates demonstrated a more pronounced effect. Finally, policy recommendations for the low-carbon transition of coal power were proposed from the perspectives of green ammonia production and co-firing technology.
Wang et al. (Fri,) studied this question.