Contemporary complexity frameworks—including self-organized criticality, early-warning signals, complex adaptive systems, NK-landscapes, and informational synergetics—treat crisis triggers as atomized, structureless, and memoryless perturbations defined solely by magnitude. This article demonstrates that this foundational assumption creates a systemic explanatory gap, leaving the specificity, asymmetric scaling, and directional determination of individual transformations systematically unanswered. To resolve this limitation, this study introduces an alternative paradigm based on the theory of Concentrative Causality. This approach reconceives the trigger as a historically structured entity co-evolved with systemic vulnerabilities within a shared macro-historical process. The article provides a conceptual formalization of this relational framework, replacing the orthodox assumption of stochastic independence with a conditional probability model of topological fit. Ultimately, this reorientation shifts the analytical focus from the aggregate epidemiology of crisis populations to the precise causal anatomy of singular systemic events.
Ekaterina Fialko (Fri,) studied this question.