Greening and Divergent Stability Responses in Central Asian Mountain Grasslands Under the Grassland Ecological Compensation Policy of China

Mountain grasslands of Central Asia, recognized as a globally significant biodiversity hotspot and a vital pastoral resource, are presently experiencing profound transformations driven by climate change and evolving grazing practices. This study investigated the multidimensional dynamics of ecosystem stability in the Bayinbuluk grassland of the central Tianshan Mountains across two contrasting temporal periods: before (2000–2010) and after (2011–2024) implementation of China's Grassland Ecological Compensation Policy. The study employed a quasi‐temporal observational design that integrates 25 years of satellite‐derived vegetation indices with field monitoring data. The findings were as follows: (1) a greening trend was observed across 72.7% of the study area, predominantly post‐2011; moreover, while overall constancy increased, resistance declined across most pasture types, with stronger constancy gains in spring and winter pastures and more browning signals in summer and autumn pastures, indicating that an increase in greening and improved temporal constancy do not necessarily confer an enhanced capacity to withstand extreme climatic events; (2) climate variables explained only 3.1% of interannual productivity variance, and climate‐adjusted residuals were consistently higher during 2011–2024 than during 2000–2010, suggesting that the role of non‐climatic factors, possibly including redistribution of grazing pressure associated with socioeconomic changes and policy‐guided reorganization of seasonal transhumance; and (3) productivity and constancy displayed a unimodal pattern along elevational and hydrothermal gradients, while resistance showed a contrasting response; additionally, the correlation between constancy and resistance peaked under intermediate environmental conditions. These results highlight that multidimensional stability assessment, rather than reliance on greening trends alone, provides a more comprehensive framework for evaluating grassland management outcomes; the findings also underscore the need for season‐specific monitoring and grazing strategies to protect the functionality of alpine grasslands amidst ongoing climatic changes.