Consequence Analysis of Major Fires at Plutonium Pit Production Facilities

As the United States reestablishes large-scale plutonium pit production, federal agencies have published environmental impact studies estimating radiological consequences from major facility fires in New Mexico and South Carolina. These analyses predict average latent cancer fatalities in the single digits but do not evaluate total cancers or remediation costs from land contamination. Using atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling, this study independently estimates downwind plutonium deposition and inhalation, cancer risk, and land contamination across meteorological conditions for different source terms. For assumptions consistent with current federal analyses, a 1-kilogram respirable release could produce up to 21 latent cancer fatalities, with total cancers three times higher. Tens of square kilometers of land could require billions of dollars in soil remediation, while contamination in residential areas could require evacuation. Larger releases involving different fire conditions and smaller particle sizes could cause over 1,000 fatalities, suggesting current assessments may underestimate accident consequences.