Argentina’s Economic Complexity Index (ECI) declined from +0. 618 (rank 45) in 1995 to −0. 053 (rank 86) in 2024, representing the most sustained deterioration among upper-middle-income economies over this period. This work applies the Topological Friction framework to provide a quantitative explanation of this divergence. Topological Structure vs. Observed Outcome Across three decades, Argentina maintained exactly one gateway product — Beverages (HS-92 code 22) — while the remaining gateway pathways remained topologically open and low-friction: Plastics: two steps from beverages, no structural bridge (S = 3) Glass: two-step distance Paper: two-step distance Thus, the constraint is not structural accessibility within the Product Space. Central Result: Coordination Trap The evidence indicates a coordination trap, not a topological one: The agroindustrial cluster is 98% internally triangulated (S = 3 on 45/46 edges) Gateway paths exist and are friction-free However, the institutional planning horizon (Λ) is insufficient to support multi-step coordinated investment This results in a persistent failure to cross the competitiveness threshold in downstream sectors. Argentina produces glass for domestic wine bottling and PET plastics for beverages, yet has not developed export-competitive industries in these sectors. The limiting factor is therefore not topology, but the institutional capacity to operationalize existing pathways. Strategic Anchor and Policy Pathway We identify the Beverage Industrial Complex (wine, citrus juice, beer; 703M exports in 2024) as the natural coordination anchor for industrial upgrading. A synchronized development strategy targeting adjacent gateways would involve: Plastics (HS 39) — COG = 0. 278, export base 452M Glass (HS 70) — COG = 0. 239, export base 48M Paper (HS 48) — COG = 0. 205, export base 115M Coordinated expansion across these sectors, leveraging beverage demand as an anchor, would effectively add three gateway products in a single step, replicating the structural transition observed in Vietnam (2006–2013). Implication Argentina’s stagnation is not due to topological exclusion, but to a failure of intertemporal coordination under constrained Λ. Industrial policy must therefore act to expand the institutional horizon and coordinate investment across gateway sectors that are already topologically accessible.
Andres Sebaatian Pirolo (Fri,) studied this question.