The Impact of the Service Trade Innovative Development Pilot Policy on Pollution Reduction and Carbon Reduction

The service sector plays a central role in steering the economic structure toward greener development, and service trade provides an important route for achieving pollution reduction and carbon reduction. Drawing on a city-level panel of 278 Chinese cities from 2011 to 2022, this study uses Staggered DID and Spatial DID models to evaluate the direct and spatial spillover effects of the Service Trade Innovative Development Pilot Policy (STIDPP) on pollution reduction and carbon reduction. The results show that: (1) The STIDPP significantly promotes pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and this finding remains robust after placebo tests, PSM-DID estimation, checks addressing heterogeneous treatment effects, and controls for other policy shocks. (2) The mechanism analysis shows that the STIDPP mainly promotes pollution reduction and carbon reduction through industrial structure upgrading, green technological innovation, environmental governance investment, and public environmental concern. (3) The positive effects of the STIDPP are more pronounced in cities with higher levels of economic development, larger city size, and service-oriented industrial structures, but its promoting effect on carbon-reduction efficiency is relatively weaker in regions with stronger environmental regulation. (4) The STIDPP generates significant spatial spillover effects on pollution reduction and carbon reduction. As geographic distance increases, these effects shift from negative to positive and eventually become statistically insignificant. This study extends the research on the environmental effects of service trade and provides theoretical support and practical guidance for developing a green service trade system and enhancing the synergy between pollution reduction and carbon reduction.