Does climate-proofing a city boost its tourism? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Tourism is vulnerable to climate change, traditionally viewed as passively bearing environmental risks. However, can proactive climate governance transform this vulnerability into development opportunities? This study leverages China’s nationwide “Climate Adaptation Pilot Policy” as a quasi-natural experiment. Using panel data from 278 prefecture-level cities spanning 2010–2022, we employ a Difference-in-Differences approach with comprehensive robustness checks. Our findings offer four key insights. First, the pilot policy significantly enhances urban tourism development, generating an economically meaningful average increase in tourism revenue for pilot cities—an effect that holds across a battery of validity tests. Second, the policy strengthens tourism competitiveness through two distinct pathways: substantive improvements in ambient air quality and the transmission of credible government green signaling. Third, policy benefits are unevenly distributed, with stronger effects in cities endowed with superior tourism resources. Fourth, well-developed tourism infrastructure significantly amplifies policy effectiveness. Together, these findings provide empirical evidence for the tourism co-benefits of climate governance, illuminating how cities can leverage proactive climate action to cultivate sustainable tourism.