Quantifying the relative impacts of climate change and urbanization on maize production on the North China Plain

Climate change and urbanization are major drivers of global environmental change impacting food production, yet the effect of urbanization is often overlooked in climate-related agricultural assessments. This study addresses the critical scientific question of the relative impacts of climate change and urbanization on food production. We propose the Climate Change–Urbanization–Cropland Encroachment (CUCE) framework, which integrates crop simulation and land use change models for a parallel assessment of climate-induced crop yield impacts and urbanization-driven planting area changes. Applying CUCE, we estimated maize production on the North China Plain (NCP) under three Representative Concentration Pathway and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP-SSP) scenarios. Our analysis showed distinct production declines across scenarios: −5.76 % under RCP2.6-SSP1, −7.44 % under RCP4.5-SSP2, and −8.58 % under RCP8.5-SSP5. Regionally, Henan's maize yield is most vulnerable to climate change, while Shandong experiences the greatest loss in planting areas due to urban expansion. Overall, climate change impacts maize production more significantly than urbanization, accounting for 66.81 % of total variability and causing a 5.20 % average production loss, compared to 32.24 % and 2.13 % for urbanization, respectively. Notably, the interaction between the two factors is negligible, contributing less than 0.95 % to total variability. However, urbanization's impact is projected to intensify significantly: by 2050, its induced production losses are expected to be 4.66 times greater than in 2025, and its contribution to variability is projected to increase 2.38-fold. Given that an average of 29.23 % of projected cropland loss occurs in high-productivity areas, the impact of urbanization on future maize production warrants serious consideration. The findings highlight the urgent need for integrated assessments of urbanization and climate change impacts on food security, offering region-specific evidence for policymakers to inform integrated strategies that strengthen land use governance and climate resilience.