Event-oriented analysis reveals key characteristics of extreme precipitation events in China, aiding risk assessment and disaster mitigation.
As extreme precipitation events (EPEs) intensify globally and trigger cascading hazards, improving comprehensive understanding of their characteristics is critical for risk assessment and disaster mitigation. However, most previous studies rely on station-based and/or daily-scale analyses, with limited focus on EPEs derived from hourly rainfall observations from an event-oriented perspective; consequently, fundamental characteristics—such as spatial organization, horizontal heterogeneity, lifecycle evolution, and propagation behavior—remain poorly understood. Here, we present a comprehensive event-based analysis of EPEs across China using a spatiotemporal tracking framework applied to 43 years (1981–2023) of hourly rain gauge data. Approximately 50.4% of station-level extremes are embedded within organized, propagating systems, with this proportion exceeding 70% in North China and the Yangtze River Basin, highlighting the dominance of coherent rainband structures over isolated convection. Total EPE frequency increased significantly at approximately 1.0 event yr -1 , with most of this increasing tendency accounted for by shorter-lived events (<24 h; ∼0.9 events yr -1 ). In contrast, longer-lived events (≥24 h), though less frequent, exhibit greater spatial extent, higher intensity, and a higher likelihood of near-record rainfall. EPE life cycles are markedly asymmetric, with rapid intensification followed by slower decay. Movement analysis reveals predominant eastward propagation (∼30 km h -1 ) and a stage-dependent shift toward enhanced northward motion during decay, likely linked to increasing influence from large-scale circulation, including the western Pacific subtropical high. These results provide a robust, observation-based benchmark for understanding EPE evolution and improving forecasting and risk management.
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Gao et al. (2026) studied this question.
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