Predictors of marine protection: extractive economies and governance in National Conservation Policy

The global expansion of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) is a core element of international biodiversity strategy, yet national implementation remains highly uneven. A prevailing policy narrative states that growth in Blue Economy sectors generates incentives for conservation. This study challenges that paradigm by arguing that marine protection is shaped primarily by the domestic political economy. Using a global panel dataset, the analysis models the factors that underpin national MPA expansion events. The results identify three central predictors. First, dependence on fossil fuel rents significantly reduces the probability of MPA expansion, indicating that hydrocarbon-dependent economies consistently deprioritize conservation. Second, the political influence of the fishing sector depends on institutional quality. Where governance is weak, larger fishing industries coincide with policy stagnation, whereas in stronger institutional environments they correspond with a greater likelihood of regulatory action. Third, Small Island Developing States are substantially less likely to expand MPAs due to administrative capacity constraints, notwithstanding their high marine dependence. In contrast, growth in aquaculture and tourism shows no statistically significant association with conservation outcomes. Taken together, the findings indicate that effective marine conservation hinges less on encouraging Blue Economy expansion and more on managing fossil fuel dependency and strengthening state capacity to regulate extractive interests.