Spatial spillovers and dynamic trajectories of tourism economic development potential: Panel evidence from southwest China

Regional tourism economies are characterized by uneven development and spatially dependent growth, yet existing work tends to address potential measurement, dynamic evolution, and spatial spillovers in isolation rather than within an integrated framework. Drawing on panel data from Southwest China for 2011–2024, this study measures tourism economic development potential (TEDP) using the entropy-based TOPSIS method, characterizes its temporal evolution through kernel density estimation, and identifies spatial spillover effects with spatial econometric models. TEDP in the region follows an upward trajectory alongside persistent intra-regional disparities. Tourism revenue leakage inhibits local TEDP, whereas residents’ income, per capita consumption expenditure, education level, and digital technology positively drive it. High-potential areas generate positive spillovers on adjacent regions, though revenue leakage attenuates these effects. The integrated measurement–evolution–spillover framework offers a transferable analytical template for evaluating regional tourism economies and informing differentiated coordination strategies.