Regional disparities and spillover effects of rural credit based on quantile spatial models in Brazil

This study examines the impact of agricultural credit on agricultural production in Brazilian municipalities, considering the origins and purposes of financing, using an innovative spatial econometric approach. With data from 2019 to 2023, the research applies the Durbin spatial model (DSM), in its traditional and quantile versions, to analyze the direct and indirect effects of credit on the Gross Value of Agricultural Production (GVP), distinguishing between financing and investment lines, and between public and private credit sources. The spatial analysis, using Moran's I index and LISA, confirms patterns of credit and production concentration in the South and Midwest regions, accentuating regional inequalities. The results show that rural credit exerts a significant and heterogeneous influence throughout the distribution of agricultural productivity, with positive effects more concentrated in higher-performing municipalities. Additionally, relevant spatial externalities are observed, particularly in investment credit modalities, indicating spillover effects in neighboring municipalities. The article highlights the importance of targeted public policies that account for the spatial impacts of rural credit, with the aim of reducing territorial disparities and promoting more equitable and sustainable agricultural practices.