Discreet Realism and China–Mexico relations, 2018–2025

This article examines Mexico’s relations with China between 2018 and 2025 in the context of intensifying United States-China strategic competition. It uses Discreet Realism as a realist-informed analytical lens to interpret the strategic logic underlying Mexico’s foreign economic and diplomatic behavior. Drawing on realist theory and a qualitative interpretive analysis, the article argues that Mexico has pursued a strategy of selective engagement, low-visibility diplomacy, and disciplined signaling aimed at extracting economic and developmental benefits from China while minimizing geopolitical exposure vis-à-vis the United States. Empirically, the study analyzes trade patterns, investment dynamics, diplomatic signaling, and sector-specific cooperation, showing that Mexico’s engagement with China has expanded in economically meaningful yet politically compartmentalised ways, alongside a reinforced anchoring in North American production networks under the USMCA. Theoretically, the article conceptualises Discreet Realism as a bounded variant of hedging under conditions of asymmetric interdependence with a geographically proximate dominant power, where diversification occurs through low-visibility statecraft.