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A novel exact calculation algorithm for posterior probabilities in Bayesian Response-Adaptive Randomisation trials is highly efficient for small to moderate numbers of arms, whereas commonly used approximation methods can lead to significant power loss and type I error rate inflation. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.METHODOLOGICAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

May 8, 2026Computational Statistics & Data AnalysisOpen Access

Thompson, Ulam, or Gauss? Multi-criteria recommendations for posterior probability computation methods in Bayesian response-adaptive trials with binary endpoints

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DKDaniel KaddajUniversity of Cambridge SBStef BaasUniversity of Cambridge ETE. TangChongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications

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Kaddaj et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a54bf12be2a6681fb088a47 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2026.108401

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May 8, 2026Computational Statistics & Data AnalysisOpen Access

Thompson, Ulam, or Gauss? Multi-criteria recommendations for posterior probability computation methods in Bayesian response-adaptive trials with binary endpoints

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

DKDaniel KaddajUniversity of Cambridge SBStef BaasUniversity of Cambridge ETE. TangChongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Key points are not available for this paper at this time.

Cite This Study

Kaddaj et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a54bf12be2a6681fb088a47 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2026.108401

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