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The study examines how minilateralism influences cross-Taiwan Strait conflict management and China's strategic calculus.

What Minilateralism Can and Can’t Do in Cross-Taiwan Strait Conflict Management

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Comparative framework reveals minilateralism's uneven impact on Taiwan's security and escalation risks.

The study examines how minilateralism influences cross-Taiwan Strait conflict management and China's strategic calculus.
Developed a comparative framework focusing on policy signalling, deterrence mechanisms, and escalation dynamics.
Analyzed three cases: US–Japan–South Korea trilateral, the Quad, and TSD.
Assessed security effects and implications for Taiwan's defense strategy.
The US–Japan–South Korea trilateral shows the strongest security leverage through intelligence-sharing and operational coordination.
Escalation risks persist across minilateral frameworks, complicating consistent implementation.
Minilateralism enhances Taiwan's security environment by raising uncertainty and reinforcing deterrent capabilities.

Yang et al. (2026) studied this question.

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