Cost of railway capacity expansions in Norway as input to evaluation of economic feasibility of automatic train operation

Growing demand for rail services is driving investments to improve sustainability, efficiency, and safety. Traditionally, these goals were pursued through large-scale infrastructure projects, but they are complex, costly, and prone to delays and budget overruns. Technologies such as Automatic Train Operation (ATO) are emerging as potential alternatives or complements, promising gains in punctuality, efficiency, and capacity. Limited research exists on the comparative economic feasibility of infrastructure and ATO. This paper develops a framework for comparing the costs and benefits of infrastructure investments and ATO, using key performance indicators (KPIs) that relate costs, both per kilometer and at project level, to capacity and punctuality improvements. The framework is applied to Norwegian cases, drawing on front-end analyses of infrastructure projects and ATO use cases. The results show that infrastructure remains more cost-effective for large-scale capacity increases, while ATO is more favorable for punctuality improvements and incremental efficiency, particularly in dense corridors. Findings suggest that infrastructure and ATO should be viewed as complementary: infrastructure providing the foundation for capacity expansion, and ATO enhancing reliability and efficiency. The study contributes a structured, KPI-based framework for comparative analysis and emphasizes the need for future research to incorporate broader benefits and reduce uncertainty around ATO costs.