Strategic Reconfiguration of Agriculture Sustainability in APEC Countries: Trade Exposure, Technological Transition, and Climate Constraints

In developing economies, the agricultural sector enhances national food security, employment, and economic prosperity, while it is also closely linked to the ecological system. International trade, technological innovations, and fertilizer use are modern inputs to increase output; however, their unsustainable use leads to environmental degradation. This study examines the impacts of these critical determinants on agricultural output and emissions across the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries from 1995 to 2024. After preliminary estimation, the authors employ a panel autoregressive distributed lag model. The long‐run empirics reveal that trade openness is a significant catalyst, increasing agricultural output by 0.594%, indicating the economic benefits of efficiency and integrated markets. In addition, fertilizer use and mechanization exacerbate agricultural carbon emissions, highlighting a trade‐off between modern farming intensity and environmental quality. In the short run, the factors remain insignificant. Moreover, the error correction term (ECT) helps the economy return to the steady state after external shocks. The robustness check supports the regression results. Overall, the study highlights valuable policy implications for agricultural decarbonization through trade liberalization and the efficient use of fertilizers and mechanization to enhance output.