Spatio-Temporal Variations in Snow Depth and Their Driving Factors in Southeastern Xizang, 2000–2020: A Case Study of Chamdo City

Against the background of global warming, snow cover, as an extremely sensitive and active component of the cryosphere, plays an indispensable role in regulating regional water circulation, energy balance mechanisms and the climate system. To explore the dynamic variation characteristics and driving mechanisms of snow depth in southeastern Xizang, this study took Chamdo City as the research area. Based on multi-source datasets including snow depth, meteorology, vegetation, topography, and population density from 2000 to 2020, methods such as the coefficient of variation, Theil–Sen trend analysis, Mann–Kendall test, Hurst index, and geographical detector were adopted to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of snow depth variations and their influencing factors. The results indicate that, temporally, the overall snow depth in Chamdo City showed a fluctuating increasing trend over the past 20 years, with an annual growth rate of 0.03 cm. It exhibited distinct characteristics across three stages: snow depth increased at a rate of 0.12 cm·a−1 from 2000 to 2005, decreased at 0.05 cm·a−1 during 2005–2015, and rose rapidly from 2015 to 2020 at a growth rate of 0.52 cm·a−1. Spatially, the distribution of snow depth varied significantly. The extremely shallow snow cover area (≤2 cm) accounted for 51.71% of the total area, primarily concentrated in low-altitude regions with intensive human activities. In contrast, the relatively deep (6–10 cm) and extremely deep (>10 cm) snow cover areas together constituted 14.34% of the total, mainly distributed in high-altitude regions with sparse populations. Hurst index analysis revealed that 61.71% of the study area exhibited persistent changes in snow depth, with a trend toward deepening snow cover in the future. The results from the geographical detector show that air temperature (X9, q = 0.90) was the core driving factor dominating the static spatial differentiation of multi-year average snow depth. Furthermore, the interactions between slope (X4) and air temperature (X9), vegetation type (X6) and air temperature (X9), and population density (X5) and aspect (X8) all demonstrated bivariate enhancement effects, with explanatory power significantly higher than that of individual factors. This study provides a scientific reference for water resource management, snowmelt runoff prediction and snow disaster prevention in Chamdo City.