Monte Carlo Modeling of Asphalt Surface Wear under Studded-Tire Traffic

In this paper, the evolution of surface damage of asphalt pavements under studded tire traffic is examined using a combined experimental and stochastic modeling approach. Laboratory tests on six asphalt mixtures were integrated into a Monte Carlo framework that represents rutting wear as the cumulative effect of random stud impacts. The introduced model accurately captures the transition from the initial phase to the steady linear rutting regime and exhibits consistency with the experimental results. A strong linear relationship was identified between the stochastic detachment parameter Λ and the laboratory rutting rate κ lab , as well as with the abrasion resistance AbrA, confirming the model’s ability to reproduce measurable material responses. By linking key mixture parameters to probabilistic descriptions of surface deterioration, the proposed framework provides a predictive tool for assessing and guiding the design of more durable pavements in cold climate regions.