Assessing Environmental Conflicts in Sugarcane Production: NDVI Analysis of Land Use Suitability in the Uberaba River Basin, Brazil

Sugarcane production is central to the Brazilian economy, but the expansion of this culture into ecologically marginal landscapes exacerbates soil degradation and compromises crop vigor. This study examines the nexus between land suitability and cultivation within the Uberaba River Basin’s Environmental Protection Area, located in the of state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Additionally, the impacts of environmental land-use conflicts were assessed on vegetative health by analyzing temporal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dynamics, specifically cultivating unsuitable terrain. The environmental conflict classification system used in this study comprises four classes (Class 0 – no conflict; Class 1 – low conflict; Class 2 – moderate conflict; Class 3 – high conflict), as published elsewhere. However, the temporal analysis of NDVI spanned solely Classes 0, 1 and 2, given the absence of continuous areas of sugarcane in Class 3 that simultaneously exhibited spatial homogeneity, equivalent phenological stage across the studied period, and adequate size for reliable statistical comparison. A total of 3,600 NDVI observations were sampled monthly throughout the year of 2023. In conflict-free zones (Class 0), sugarcane exhibited smooth seasonal NDVI variations, reflecting normal climatic responses. Conversely, low-conflict areas (Class 1) showed sharp NDVI declines during dry or post-harvest periods due to water stress and soil limitations. In these zones, spring regrowth was driven by rising temperatures and nutrient availability, whereas summer vigor was constrained by moisture deficits and thermal stress. The most critical behavior occurred in moderate-conflict areas (Class 2), which demonstrated incomplete NDVI recovery that probably indicates structural soil degradation. Results demonstrate that sugarcane vigor stability and recovery progressively decline as environmental conflict intensity increases. Advancing beyond traditional NDVI monitoring, this framework integrates spectral analysis, land suitability, and conflict mapping. Consequently, it provides a robust tool to identify degradation and support sustainable agricultural planning. Graphical Abstract Based on the graphical snapshot, this study was conducted to determine the variation patterns of NDVI – Normalized Difference Vegetation Index emitted from sugarcane fields of Uberaba River Basin’s Environmental Protection Area (EPA, Minas Gerais, Brazil) throughout the course of an entire year. The work captured the complex interplay between these patterns and so called “ environmental land use conflicts ” defined as deviations of actual from suitable (natural) uses. It has become apparent from the NDVI plots that when no deviations occur (e.g., sugarcane has been planted in landscapes with resilience to receive agriculture activities), the NDVI oscillates smoothly across the year, revealing normal high values in the rainy season and low values in the dry season. However, when sugarcane has been planted on marginal landscapes (e.g., with steeper slopes or drainage densities) the NDVI declines sharply in the dry season or after the harvest, with limited or no recovery in the next rainy season. These patterns have been related to different levels of soil degradation beneath the sugarcane plantations, derived from the land use misalignment, as well as with specific soil recovery measures. The findings offer critical insights for policymakers and stakeholders in developing comprehensive resource allocation and landscape planning frameworks.