Investigates near-surface wind speed changes in China, suggesting climate indices as predictors.
Coastal near‐surface wind speed (NSWS) largely relates to the hub‐height wind speed for offshore wind production. To investigate the coherence between regional NSWS and large‐scale climate anomalies such as El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific‐Darwin Oscillation Index (NOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP), we comprehensively conducted various wavelet analyses and composite analyses to coastal NSWS and six climate indices for the period 1960–2019. The results show that, although a reversal in wind speed occurred in 2002 for most regions of China, NSWS in the coastal areas of China has declined at the rate of −0.0189 m s −1 yr. −1 during 1960–2019. Significant interannual and interdecadal oscillations are observed in both coastal NSWS and climate indices. For NSWS PC1 (the first principal component) which accounts for 44.48% of the total variance of NSWS, significant interannual oscillations with the period of approximately 2–4 years were observed during the 1970s and 2010s, and oscillations with periods 8–16 years occurred during 2000–2019. ENSO, NOI, and WHWP indices all exhibit strong periodic signals of approximately 2–6 years in coherence with NSWS PC1 from 1960 to 2019, while NAO demonstrates a synchronous variation with NSWS PC1 at an 8–16‐year timescale, particularly after 1990. Partial wavelet coherence analyses show that ENSO is strongly linked to NOI and WHWP which show strong coherence to NSWS PC1, while a weak connection exists between NAO and other climate indices at interdecadal time scales. The leading influences of ENSO‐related thermal anomalies, combined with the lagging behaviour of NOI, suggest that oceanic changes can drive atmospheric circulation patterns, while pressure system variations tend to precede changes in coastal NSWS. This aligns with the rapid atmospheric response to oceanic changes and reflects the physical process of pressure gradient driving wind fields. Meanwhile, the strong associations between low‐frequency climate signals and NSWS PC1, especially over the 8–20 years scale, suggest that these indices hold potential as reliable predictors for long‐term NSWS prediction.
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Tan et al. (2026) studied this question.
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