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OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether circulating levels of fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21), which previously has been shown to be elevated in obesity, could predict the development of type 2 diabetes in a 5.4-year, population-based, prospective study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Baseline plasma FGF21 levels were measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 1,900 subjects from the Hong Kong Cardiovascular Risk Factor Prevalence Study (CRISPS). The prospective association of FGF21 with diabetes development over 5.4 years was analyzed using multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: At baseline, plasma levels of FGF21 increased progressively with worsening dysglycemia from normal glucose tolerance, through prediabetes, to diabetes (global trend, P < 0.001). Of 1,292 subjects without diabetes at baseline, a high baseline FGF21 level was a strong independent predictor for diabetes development (odds ratio 1.792; P < 0.01), together with waist circumference and fasting plasma glucose levels. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma FGF21 levels were significantly increased in subjects with prediabetes and diabetes and predicted the development of diabetes in humans.
Chen et al. (Wed,) studied this question.