Carbon offsetting in aviation: revealed behavioral evidence from a European frequent flyer program

Air travel is expected to continue growing in the coming decades, increasing the pressure to reduce carbon emissions from aviation. Voluntary carbon offsetting is one of the few options currently available to air travelers to address these emissions. However, only a small share of passengers chooses to purchase offsets. While most existing studies rely on stated preferences and intentions, this paper examines revealed carbon offsetting behavior using anonymized individual-level data from 3.9 million air travelers enrolled in a major European airline frequent flyer program. In doing so, the study provides the first large-scale evidence on voluntary carbon offsetting based on real-world behavioral data from a frequent flyer context. Our analysis shows that five percent of air travelers offset at least one flight in 2023. Participation is highest among middle-aged male travelers with high frequent-flyer status, challenging several socio-demographic patterns that are commonly inferred from stated-preference research but are not reflected in revealed offsetting behavior. By documenting systematic gaps between stated intentions and revealed behavior, this study challenges established assumptions in sustainability and transport research and introduces complementary theoretical perspectives to explain voluntary climate action in high-emission consumption contexts.