Background Indonesia’s peatlands are highly vulnerable to fire during prolonged dry periods, particularly under El Niño conditions. The 2015 fire crisis highlighted the devastating economic, health, and environmental impacts of uncontrolled peat fires. To address this, the Fire Risk System (FRS) was developed to provide seasonal forecasts and enable anticipatory action. Complementary restoration measures such as canal blocking and community fire preparedness have also been implemented to reduce fire risk. Methods We analysed hotspot data from NASA’s MODIS satellites (2001–2024) and rainfall records from Indonesia’s Meteorological Agency. Regression models quantified the relationship between fire incidence and climatic variables, including rainfall anomalies and rainy season onset. Intervention impacts were assessed by comparing districts with active FRS implementation and restoration measures against those without systematic interventions. Statistical tests were used to evaluate differences in hotspot counts and density, with additional analysis of El Niño years. Results Regression models explained 31–58% of the variance in hotspot occurrence across eight high-risk districts. Increased rainfall significantly suppressed fire activity, while the onset of the rainy season improved predictive accuracy in Riau districts. Following the FRS rollout, hotspot counts declined sharply, with reductions exceeding 90% during the 2023 El Niño compared to 2015. Districts combining FRS with restoration, particularly Barito Selatan, consistently recorded lower hotspot counts and densities than comparable districts such as Kapuas. Community-based fire brigades and fire-free livelihood pilots further enhanced resilience. Conclusions The integration of anticipatory climate services with ecological restoration has proven highly effective in reducing peat fire incidence in Indonesia. FRS enables timely preparedness and resource mobilisation, while canal blocking and rewetting reduce underlying vulnerability. Regional variation underscores the importance of governance and institutional uptake in maximising system effectiveness. Together, these approaches demonstrate a scalable pathway to mitigate fire risk and protect health, ecosystems, and livelihoods in fire-prone peatland regions.
kieft et al. (Tue,) studied this question.