Transition to Decarbonization-Oriented Urban Planning: Exploring Simplified Estimation Methods for the Emission Reduction Effects of Residential Induction

Urban areas, where diverse human activities take place, generate significant amounts of carbon dioxide. This study proposes a simplified method for estimating the reduction effects of carbon dioxide emissions from passenger transportation resulting from compact city measures, which are expected to contribute to reducing emissions in urban areas. In particular, this study contributes by introducing a distance-band-based estimation framework, enabling scenario-based analysis with reduced data requirements while retaining key spatial characteristics. This method enables planners to quickly assess whether the required CO2 reduction levels can be achieved under given policy settings, thereby supporting evidence-based policy formulation. As an example of how this method could be applied in the policy formulation stage, it was applied to Toyohashi City, which faces the challenge of car dependency, a common problem in many regional cities. It was demonstrated that the scenario assuming the achievement of the targets for land use and transport measures outlined in municipal plans from 2022 to 2050 could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by over 40%. This research supports integrated consideration of urban and transportation measures at the planning and policy formulation stages, contributing to highlighting pathways toward sustainable urban development aimed at achieving carbon neutrality.