Russia's Arctic Plans after SPIEF 2026: The Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor, Project Implementation and Systemic Risks

This article examines Russia’s Arctic policy as of mid-July 2026, using the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor (TATC) as the central integrating axis. It assesses SPIEF 2026 as a stage in the transition to project-level implementation and examines the maturity of transport, industrial, energy and territorial projects, northern delivery and international cooperation. SPIEF 2026 further specified the TATC’s development stages, cargo-volume scenarios, investment benchmarks and a preliminary project portfolio, while the corridor’s financial, economic and organisational model remained under development. Implementation remains uneven. The analysis identifies five systemic gaps: cargo base–capacity, infrastructure–operations, capital–returns, territorial resilience–production, and partner interest–commitments. Progress at the next stage depends on establishing integrated end-to-end project chains, a coordinated implementation schedule, and clearly allocated responsibilities among participants.