Heterogeneity in intergenerational childcare support and its association with further childbearing intentions in China

Despite China’s shift toward pro-natalist policy discourse, fertility rates remain persistently low, highlighting the growing importance of family-level conditions under which childbearing decisions are made. In the context of limited public childcare provision, intergenerational support, particularly grandparental involvement, has become a key component of the family care environment. Rather than treating such support as a binary or isolated resource, this study examines the heterogeneity of intergenerational childcare support configurations and their association with couples’ intentions for further childbearing. Using 2023 survey data from 1,742 Chinese households collected via the Credamo platform, this study applies latent class analysis based on six dimensions of intergenerational support, including childcare arrangements, geographic proximity, grandparents’ health, financial transfers, pedagogical conflict, and willingness to provide future care. Three distinct configurations are identified: “Mutually Supportive”, “Patrilineal-led” and “Parental Self-reliant”. Poisson regression analyses show that fertility intentions are systematically patterned across these configurations, with couples embedded in mutually supportive intergenerational contexts reporting higher intentions for additional children. By adopting a person-centered, family-level approach, this study moves beyond variable-centered analyses and highlights how fertility intentions are embedded in multidimensional intergenerational support contexts under conditions of care scarcity in contemporary China.